Read the river upstream: how one blogger uses macroeconomics to judge markets

Share prices, property and gold are the downstream, Winson Choong argues; interest rates and the bond market are the upstream, and they move first. His stories from Kenya in 2015 and Malaysia’s property cycle, and the calls he says came true in 2026. Part 4 of our notes — not investment advice.

By the VibeFlow team · 28 October 2026 · 8 min read

Upstream and downstream

When he studied macroeconomics at university he scored a distinction, and assumed it was knowledge for civil servants and banks. It took him years to see it as a tool for personal investing.

His model is a river. Share prices, property prices and gold are the downstream: the results. Most investment commentators on Facebook, he said, talk only about the downstream, with charts, software and technical analysis of what a price may do in the next few weeks. Upstream are the economic signals, and when they change, the ripple reaches the downstream three to six months later. He watches two: the US Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policy, which many people write about, and the US bond market, which few can explain. Put the two together, he said, and the picture becomes much clearer.

Kenya, 2015: when a US rate rise reached Nairobi

His first real test came in 2015. He was country manager in Kenya for Probase, in charge of arranging bank financing for a project the company had won. Since the 2008 subprime crisis the Federal Reserve had only cut rates and printed money; his whole generation, he said, had never lived through a rising-rate cycle.

In September 2015 he expected the Fed to start raising rates, and reasoned that Kenya, whose reserves were thinner than Malaysia’s, would see foreign money leave. Two things would follow: the Kenyan shilling would fall badly, and Kenyan interest rates — already about 12% for commercial loans, against 3% to 4% in Malaysia today — would rise.

So he told the group finance manager not to convert the company’s US dollars into shillings yet, and not to take up the bank’s offer. The finance manager replied that a US rate rise could not affect Kenya. Winson took it to the director, and the offer letter went unsigned until the picture cleared.

The Fed raised rates in December 2015, but in Kenya the money had already started leaving in September and October. By his account the shilling fell sharply within months and Kenyan interest rates shot up — he recalls rates of up to 30%. Waiting saved the company a currency loss and a far higher cost of borrowing, and when it did convert, its dollars bought considerably more shillings than they would have months earlier. From then on, he said, he was convinced that economic knowledge matters for business and for personal investment.

Malaysia’s property cycle: out in 2017, in during COVID

Back in Malaysia in 2016, property was booming and Facebook was full of property gurus selling courses. He went to a free seminar where the speaker promised a special formula to get rich easily. His friends and seniors were all buying.

He looked instead at plain public data — the Malaysian House Price Index published by NAPIC — and concluded that the boom would turn in 2017 and 2018. So rather than invest the savings he had brought home from Africa, he sold the properties he already owned.

In 2020 the economy turned: retrenchments, bankruptcies, banks laying people off. In 2021, under lockdown, houses and shop houses were for sale everywhere, auctions were common, and people were afraid of a crisis. That is when he bought several properties. With the recovery in 2023 and 2024 their prices rose; one house bought for about RM410,000 was worth about RM600,000 two years later, pushed further by the RTS Link to Singapore.

Gold, and the two decisions he rates highest

Studying the subprime crisis convinced him that gold was undervalued, and he began buying at roughly US$1,200 to US$1,300 an ounce. He put the price on the day of the talk at about US$4,000. Buying property during COVID and buying gold early are what he calls his two great investment decisions. His conclusion was not that everyone should buy either, but that a salary gives you savings, and savings invested with understanding can grow faster than the salary itself.

• RM410k → 600kA house bought in 2021Its value about two years later, roughly
• US$1.2–1.3kWhere he began buying gold, per ounceThe transcript is unclear on the exact figure
• ~US$4,000Gold per ounce, as he put itOn the day of the talk

The 2026 calls he says came true

The bond-market series made 2026 his breakout year. In his July and August seminars, he said, he made several calls that were borne out two to three months later. We report them as he told them; they concern events of the last few weeks that we have not checked independently.

His most contested reading came as he explained the method. The official reason for the US–Iran war earlier this year, he said, was Iran’s nuclear programme; his reading is that the US needed to borrow, and that war sends frightened money from around the world into US bonds. That is his interpretation, not established fact, and readers should weigh it against the stated reasons and wider reporting. We include it because it shows how he reads events through the bond market, not because we endorse it.

Opportunity or trap?

Why teach macroeconomics at all? Because, he said, people who learn the logic are harder to cheat. The investment world is full of people who pat your shoulder and promise to make you rich at speed, and many have lost their retirement funds, or their parents’ hard-earned savings, because they could not tell an opportunity from a trap. He does not offer tips. Ask him how to invest in nuclear facilities, he said, and he will tell you he does not know; what he offers is a way of reasoning about the economy.

Dr Chan made the same point in her own words: the people selling get-rich formulas online are rarely the people who got rich. You will not see Warren Buffett, she said, selling a course.

Common questions

Sources

1. Federal funds rate — Wikipedia
2. Bond market — Wikipedia
3. Kenyan shilling — Wikipedia
4. Central Bank of Kenya — centralbank.go.ke
5. National Property Information Centre (NAPIC) — Malaysian House Price Index — JPPH